McMurray,+B

BRANDON MCMURRAY

Brainstorming:
 * 1) number of shots vs. number of goals in a NHL season
 * 2) activity level vs. weight
 * 3) drug use vs. school grades
 * 4) professional athletes income vs. sport played

__**SHOOT THE PUCK**__




 * Topic:** number of shots vs. number of goals in a NHL season

Does the amount of shots a player takes (independent variable) determine the amount of goals a player will get in one season (dependent variable)? Will there be a strong correlation between the amount of shots a player takes to how many goals he will score?
 * Question:**

I believe that there will be a strong correlation between the number of shots a player takes to the amount of goals he will score. More shots will result in more goals.
 * Hypothesis:**

Something Don Cherry always told the kids, "shoot the puck". Cant snip some ched without letting that howie go.
 * Background information:**


 * Raw Data:**

2009-10 Regular Season

2008-09 Regular Season
 * Player || S || G ||
 * Sidney Crosby || 298 || 51 ||
 * Steven Stamkos || 297 || 51 ||
 * Alex Ovechkin || 368 || 50 ||
 * Patrick Marleau || 274 || 44 ||
 * Marian Gaborik || 272 || 42 ||
 * Ilya Kovalchuk || 290 || 41 ||
 * Alexander Semin || 278 || 40 ||
 * Dany Heatley || 280 || 39 ||
 * Zach Parise || 347 || 38 ||
 * Alexandre Burrows || 209 || 35 ||


 * Player || S || G ||
 * Alex Ovechkin || 528 || 56 ||
 * Jeff Carter || 342 || 46 ||
 * Zach Parise || 364 || 45 ||
 * Ilya Kovalchuk || 275 || 43 ||
 * Rick Nash || 263 || 40 ||
 * Eric Staal || 372 || 40 ||
 * Marian Hossa || 307 || 40 ||
 * Thomas Vanek || 211 || 40 ||
 * Michael Cammalleri || 255 || 39 ||
 * Dany Heatley || 258 || 39 ||

2007-08 Regular Season


 * Player || S || G ||
 * Alex Ovechkin || 446 || 65 ||
 * Ilya Kovalchuk || 283 || 52 ||
 * Jarome Iginla || 338 || 50 ||
 * Evgeni Malkin || 272 || 47 ||
 * Henrik Zetterberg || 358 || 43 ||
 * Brad Boyes || 207 || 43 ||
 * Marian Gaborik || 278 || 42 ||
 * Dany Heatley || 224 || 41 ||
 * Vincent Lecavalier || 318 || 40 ||
 * Daniel Alfredsson || 217 || 40 ||

2006-07 Regular Season


 * Player || S || G ||
 * Vincent Lecavalier || 339 || 52 ||
 * Dany Heatley || 310 || 50 ||
 * Teemu Selanne || 257 || 48 ||
 * Alex Ovechkin || 392 || 46 ||
 * Martin St Louis || 273 || 43 ||
 * Marian Hossa || 340 || 43 ||
 * Thomas Vanek || 237 || 43 ||
 * Ilya Kovalchuk || 336 || 42 ||
 * Simon Gagne || 291 || 41 ||
 * Jason Blake || 305 || 40 ||

2005-06 Regular Season


 * Player || S || G ||
 * Jonathan Cheechoo || 317 || 56 ||
 * Jaromir Jagr || 368 || 54 ||
 * Alex Ovechkin || 425 || 52 ||
 * Ilya Kovalchuk || 323 || 52 ||
 * Dany Heatley || 300 || 50 ||
 * Brian Gionta || 291 || 48 ||
 * Simon Gagne || 334 || 47 ||
 * Eric Staal || 279 || 45 ||
 * Daniel Alfredsson || 249 || 43 ||
 * Teemu Selanne || 267 || 40 ||


 * Graphs:**



2009-10 Regular Season r=0.49 There is a positive moderate correlation between the amount of shots taken to outcome of goals in the 2009-2010 NHL regular season.
 * Correlation Coefficient Calculations**:
 * X || Y || X^2 || Y^2 || XY ||
 * 298 || 51 || 88804 || 2601 || 15198 ||
 * 297 || 51 || 88209 || 2601 || 15147 ||
 * 368 || 50 || 135424 || 2500 || 18400 ||
 * 274 || 44 || 75076 || 1936 || 12056 ||
 * 272 || 42 || 73984 || 1764 || 11424 ||
 * 290 || 41 || 84100 || 1681 || 11890 ||
 * 278 || 40 || 77284 || 1600 || 11120 ||
 * 280 || 39 || 78400 || 1521 || 10920 ||
 * 347 || 38 || 120409 || 1444 || 13186 ||
 * 209 || 35 || 43681 || 1225 || 7315 ||
 * **2913** || **431** || **865371** || **18873** || **126656** ||

2008-09 Regular Season r=0.84 There is a positive strong correlation between shots taken to the outcome of goals in the 2008-2009 NHL season.
 * X || Y || X^2 || Y^2 || XY ||
 * 528 || 56 || 278784 || 3136 || 29568 ||
 * 342 || 46 || 116964 || 3220 || 15732 ||
 * 364 || 45 || 132496 || 2025 || 16380 ||
 * 275 || 43 || 75625 || 1849 || 11825 ||
 * 263 || 40 || 69169 || 1600 || 10520 ||
 * 372 || 40 || 138384 || 1600 || 14880 ||
 * 307 || 40 || 94249 || 1600 || 12280 ||
 * 211 || 40 || 44521 || 1600 || 8440 ||
 * 255 || 39 || 65025 || 1521 || 9945 ||
 * 258 || 39 || 66564 || 1521 || 10062 ||
 * **2803** || **388** || **1081781** || **19672** || **139632** ||

2007-08 Regular Season r=0.73 There is a positive strong correlation between shots taken to the outcome of goals in the 2007-2008 NHL season.
 * X || Y || X^2 || Y^2 || XY ||
 * 446 || 65 || 198916 || 4225 || 28990 ||
 * 283 || 52 || 80089 || 2704 || 14716 ||
 * 338 || 50 || 114244 || 2500 || 16900 ||
 * 272 || 47 || 73984 || 2209 || 12784 ||
 * 358 || 43 || 128164 || 1849 || 15394 ||
 * 207 || 43 || 42849 || 1849 || 8901 ||
 * 278 || 42 || 77284 || 1764 || 11676 ||
 * 224 || 41 || 50176 || 1681 || 9184 ||
 * 318 || 40 || 101124 || 1600 || 12720 ||
 * 217 || 40 || 47089 || 1600 || 8680 ||
 * **2941** || **463** || **913919** || **21981** || **139945** ||

2006-07 Regular Season r=0.18 There is a positive weak correlation between shots taken to the outcome of goals in the 2006-2007 NHL season.
 * X || Y || X^2 || Y^2 || XY ||
 * 339 || 52 || 114921 || 2704 || 17628 ||
 * 310 || 50 || 96100 || 2500 || 15500 ||
 * 257 || 48 || 66049 || 2304 || 12336 ||
 * 392 || 46 || 153664 || 2116 || 18032 ||
 * 273 || 43 || 74529 || 1849 || 11739 ||
 * 340 || 43 || 115600 || 1849 || 14620 ||
 * 237 || 43 || 56169 || 1849 || 10191 ||
 * 336 || 42 || 112896 || 1764 || 14112 ||
 * 291 || 41 || 84681 || 1681 || 11931 ||
 * 305 || 40 || 93025 || 1600 || 12200 ||
 * **3080** || **448** || **967634** || **20216** || **138289** ||

2005-06 Regular Season r=0.67 There is a positive moderate to strong correlation between shots taken to the outcome of goals in the 2005-2006 NHL season.
 * X || Y || X^2 || Y^2 || XY ||
 * 317 || 56 || 100489 || 3136 || 17752 ||
 * 368 || 54 || 135424 || 2916 || 19872 ||
 * 425 || 52 || 180625 || 2704 || 22100 ||
 * 323 || 52 || 104329 || 2704 || 16796 ||
 * 300 || 50 || 90000 || 2500 || 15000 ||
 * 291 || 48 || 84681 || 2304 || 13968 ||
 * 334 || 47 || 111556 || 2209 || 15698 ||
 * 279 || 45 || 77841 || 2025 || 12555 ||
 * 249 || 43 || 62001 || 1849 || 10707 ||
 * 267 || 40 || 71289 || 1600 || 10680 ||
 * **3153** || **487** || **1018235** || **23947** || **155128** ||


 * Standard Deviation Calculation:** (X) Variable - Shots

2009-10 Regular Season ² || =__10801__ 10 =**√**1080.1 =32.9
 * X || Mean || Deviation || Deviation
 * 274 || 291 || -17 || 289 ||
 * 272 || 291 || -19 || 361 ||
 * 290 || 291 || -1 || 1 ||
 * 278 || 291 || -13 || 169 ||
 * 280 || 291 || -11 || 121 ||
 * 347 || 291 || 56 || 3136 ||
 * 209 || 291 || -82 || 6724 ||
 * ||  ||   || **10801** ||

2008-09 Regular Season =__79381__ 10 =√7938.1 =89.1
 * X || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 528 || 280 || 248 || 61504 ||
 * 342 || 280 || 62 || 3844 ||
 * 364 || 280 || 84 || 7056 ||
 * 275 || 280 || -5 || 25 ||
 * 263 || 280 || -17 || 289 ||
 * 372 || 280 || -8 || 64 ||
 * 307 || 280 || 27 || 729 ||
 * 211 || 280 || 69 || 4761 ||
 * 255 || 280 || -25 || 625 ||
 * 258 || 280 || -22 || 484 ||
 * ||  ||   || 79381 ||

2007-08 Regular Season =__48971__ 10 =**√**4897.1 =69.9
 * X || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 446 || 294 || 152 || 23104 ||
 * 283 || 294 || -11 || 121 ||
 * 338 || 294 || 44 || 1936 ||
 * 272 || 294 || -22 || 484 ||
 * 358 || 294 || 64 || 4096 ||
 * 207 || 294 || -87 || 7569 ||
 * 278 || 294 || -16 || 256 ||
 * 224 || 294 || -70 || 4900 ||
 * 318 || 294 || 24 || 576 ||
 * 217 || 294 || -77 || 5929 ||
 * ||  ||   || 48971 ||

2006-07 Regular Season =__18994__ 10
 * Z || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 339 || 308 || 31 || 961 ||
 * 310 || 308 || 2 || 4 ||
 * 257 || 308 || -51 || 2601 ||
 * 392 || 308 || 84 || 7056 ||
 * 273 || 308 || -35 || 1225 ||
 * 340 || 308 || 32 || 1024 ||
 * 237 || 308 || -71 || 5041 ||
 * 336 || 308 || 28 || 784 ||
 * 291 || 308 || -17 || 289 ||
 * 305 || 308 || 3 || 9 ||
 * ||  ||   || 18994 ||

=**√**1899.4 =43.6

2005-06 Regular Season =__24095__ 10 =**√**2409.5 =49.1
 * X || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 317 || 315 || 2 || 4 ||
 * 368 || 315 || 53 || 2809 ||
 * 425 || 315 || 110 || 12100 ||
 * 323 || 315 || 8 || 64 ||
 * 300 || 315 || -15 || 225 ||
 * 291 || 315 || -24 || 576 ||
 * 334 || 315 || 19 || 361 ||
 * 279 || 315 || -36 || 1296 ||
 * 249 || 315 || -66 || 4356 ||
 * 267 || 315 || -48 || 2304 ||
 * ||  ||   || 24095 ||


 * Standard Deviation Calculation:** (Y) Variable - Goals

2009-10 Regular Season =297/10 =**√**29.7 =5.4
 * Y || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 51 || 43 || 8 || 64 ||
 * 51 || 43 || 8 || 64 ||
 * 50 || 43 || 7 || 49 ||
 * 44 || 43 || 1 || 1 ||
 * 42 || 43 || -1 || 1 ||
 * 41 || 43 || -2 || 4 ||
 * 40 || 43 || -3 || 9 ||
 * 39 || 43 || -4 || 16 ||
 * 38 || 43 || -5 || 25 ||
 * 35 || 43 || -8 || 64 ||
 * ||  ||   || 297 ||

2008-09 Regular Season =394/10 =**√**39.4 =6.3
 * Y || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 56 || 39 || 17 || 289 ||
 * 46 || 39 || 7 || 49 ||
 * 45 || 39 || 6 || 36 ||
 * 43 || 39 || 4 || 16 ||
 * 40 || 39 || 1 || 1 ||
 * 40 || 39 || 1 || 1 ||
 * 40 || 39 || 1 || 1 ||
 * 40 || 39 || 1 || 1 ||
 * 39 || 39 || 0 || 0 ||
 * 39 || 39 || 0 || 0 ||
 * ||  ||   || 394 ||

2007-08 Regular Season =545/10 =**√**54.4 =7.4
 * Y || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 65 || 46 || 19 || 361 ||
 * 52 || 46 || 6 || 36 ||
 * 50 || 46 || 4 || 16 ||
 * 47 || 46 || 1 || 1 ||
 * 43 || 46 || -3 || 9 ||
 * 43 || 46 || -3 || 9 ||
 * 42 || 46 || -4 || 16 ||
 * 41 || 46 || -5 || 25 ||
 * 40 || 46 || -6 || 36 ||
 * 40 || 46 || -6 || 36 ||
 * ||  ||   || 545 ||

2006-07 Regular Season =146/10 =**√**14.6 =3.9
 * Y || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 52 || 45 || 7 || 49 ||
 * 50 || 45 || 5 || 25 ||
 * 48 || 45 || 3 || 9 ||
 * 46 || 45 || 1 || 1 ||
 * 43 || 45 || -2 || 4 ||
 * 43 || 45 || -2 || 4 ||
 * 43 || 45 || -2 || 4 ||
 * 42 || 45 || -3 || 9 ||
 * 41 || 45 || -4 || 16 ||
 * 40 || 45 || -5 || 25 ||
 * ||  ||   || 146 ||

2005-06 Regular Season =231/10 =**√**23.1 =4.8
 * Y || Mean || Deviation || Deviation² ||
 * 56 || 49 || 7 || 49 ||
 * 54 || 49 || 5 || 25 ||
 * 52 || 49 || 3 || 9 ||
 * 52 || 49 || 3 || 9 ||
 * 50 || 49 || 1 || 1 ||
 * 48 || 49 || -1 || 1 ||
 * 47 || 49 || -2 || 4 ||
 * 45 || 49 || -4 || 16 ||
 * 43 || 49 || -6 || 36 ||
 * 40 || 49 || -9 || 81 ||
 * ||  ||   || 231 ||

In conclusion i would have to say that my hypothesis was fairly accurate. The correlation for all the seasons except one were in the range of positive moderate or strong. This makes sense because generally the more shots a player will take the more likely you are to score a goal. This will range every season but the correlation should stay in the general range of positive moderate or strong.
 * Conclusion**:

Player Stats - 2009-2010 - Regular Season (n.d.). In //NHL Player Stats//. Retrieved November 14, 2010, from www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm
 * Bibliography**: